This year I finally had some time to give the wild play charts a long-overdue overhaul. This is a brief summary of the changes for those who are interested.
After spending some time inputting the existing plays (along with estimated outcomes) into an Excel spreadsheet, I was able to confirm two longstanding suspicions I had about the charts, namely:
1) wild plays benefited the offense significantly — according to my calculations they resulted in a .477/.505/.783 slash line
2) there weren’t enough injury rolls for pitchers — according to my calculations the batter/pitcher split on injury rolls was 75%/25%
In order to reduce the offensive output of the wild plays I changed most of the plays which resulted in hits into plays which did not have a pre-determined result (e.g. IFR/OFR roll). After the changes, the wild plays have an estimated offensive output of .267/.332/.367.
Fixing the injury distribution was a bit more tricky, as it required adding a substantial number of new pitcher injury rolls. The solution I chose was to turn the 000-199 range previously reserved for SPECIALs into a required injury roll for pitchers (except with runners on base and a pitcher with W-WP symbol, as those additional wild pitches are still needed for accuracy purposes). As a result the SPECIAL wild play chart has been removed and some symbols have been phased out (e.g. HOME/ROAD). Despite the loss of some “flavor”, I think that most people will be happier with the streamlined resolution, given the confusion that frequently resulted when multiple SPECIALs were involved. The batter/pitcher split on injury rolls is now effectively 50/50.
If there are specific plays you’d like to see added to the wild play charts, feel free to leave a comment.